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The other leg is the second fight of the night (this parlay is the initial two fights of the night), and I like Claudio Ribeiro to beat Joseph Holmes. Holmes is somebody I was higher on coming into the UFC, but he has disappointed early. He doesn't throw significantly volume and can be taken down (although Ribeiro isn't identified for his wrestling). Cejudo is no doubt the superior wrestler, but Sterling has exceptional takedowns so I do feel he can catch Cejudo off guard at points. Then, on the feet, I believe Cejudo will have a really hard time with his variety and timing due to the time off. Sterling is also incredibly active on the feet and is tough to hit and I feel he can win the early rounds and edge out a decision. Eventually, I do worry about what Muhammad's training camp has been like, particularly with him wanting this to be at 185lbs. It will be a back-and-forth fight, but I like Burns to win a decision here.

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Contemplating the prospective pace of this fight, I would rather bet the over 2.5 rounds at a pick'em price and steer clear of the possible for a late-fight, cardio-driven stoppage. I count on this fight to reach a choice 53% of the time (-113 implied odds) and count on Batusita to win that choice (projected +154, listed +175 at FanDuel) extra often than not. He also hasn't had the opportunity to employ his offensive wrestling game, with which he can threaten submissions with his world-class jiu-jitsu capabilities. This is his initially 3-round bout due to the fact late 2021 after headlining a trio of UFC Fight Evening-type cards. Given the grappling differential, I was shocked to come across Rodrigues by submission (projected +182, listed +225) at a a great deal much better price than his knockout prop (projected +218, listed +110). Rodrigues has the capabilities benefit everywhere in this matchup, and he's the far superior athlete too. Nonetheless, the Brazilian has shown a suspect chin, finding knocked out or wobbled in many fights, and he doesn't have the greatest cardio due to his ripped physique. As you can see, I have a somewhat similar outlook on the two Ultimate Fighter finale matchups and favor the underdog in both bouts against a pair of solid but comparatively harmless favorites.